Future:
Think about it ... Imagine it...
(This has been floating around the internet for a while; it hasn't been verified but is nevertheless very interesting!)
In 1998,
Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide.
Within
just a few years, their business model disappeared and they got bankrupt.
What
happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years - and
most people don't see it coming.
Did you
think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film
again? Digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000
pixels, but followed Moore's law. So
as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time,
before it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. It
will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, automatic / electric
cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. Welcome to the 4th
Industrial Revolution.
Welcome to the Exponential Age.
Software
will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years
Mind
you, Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the
biggest taxi company in the world. AirBnB is now the biggest hotel company in
the world, although they don't own any properties.
Artificial Intelligence:
Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a
computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.
In the US, young lawyers already don't have jobs. You can get legal advice,
(more or less basic stuff) from IBM Watson within seconds, with 90% accuracy
compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you study law, stop
immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, only specialists
will remain.
Watson
already helps nurses diagnose cancer, 4 times more accurate than human nurses.
Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better
than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
Automatic cars: In
2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the
complete automobile industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own
a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your
location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you
only pay for the driven distance and be productive while driving. Our kids will
never get a driver's licence and will never own a car. It will change the
cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former
parking space into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents
worldwide. We now have one accident every 100,000km, with autopilot driving
that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will save a million lives
each year.
Most car
companies might become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary
approach and just build a better car, while tech companies, (Tesla, Apple,
Google) will do try the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.
I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; they are completely
terrified of Tesla.
Insurance
companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance
will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.
Real
estate business is bound to change. Because if you can work while you commute,
people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
Electric
cars will become mainstream in 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all cars
will run on electricity, which will become incredibly cheap and clean.
Solar
production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now
see the impact. Last year, more solar energy stations were installed worldwide
than fossil. The price for solar energy will drop so much that all coal
companies will be defunct by 2025.
With
cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now only needs
2kWh per cubic meter.
We don't
have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine
what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for
nearly no cost.
Health: The Tricorder X price
will be announced this year. There are pharma companies building a medical
device, (called the 'Tricorder' from Star Trek) that works with your phone,
which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and your breath into it. It
then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be
cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world
class medicine, nearly for free.
3D printing: The price of the cheapest
3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it
became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes.
Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space
station now has a 3D printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of
spare parts they used to have in the past.
At the
end of this year, new smartphones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can
then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they
already 3D printed a complete 6-story office building. By 2027, 10% of
everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.
Business opportunities: If you
think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself - in the future, do you think
we will have that?, and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen
sooner? If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea
designed for success in the 20th century is doomed for failure in the 21st
century.
Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next
20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be
enough new jobs in such a small time.
Agriculture: There will be a $100
agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then
become managers of their field instead of working all days on their fields.
Aeroponics (indoor growing without soil) will need much less water. The first
petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced
veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces are used for cows.
Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups who
will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than
meat. It will be labeled as 'Alternative protein source' (as most people still
reject the idea of eating insects).
There is
an app called 'Moodies', which can already tell in which mood you are. Until
2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are
lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed, if they are
speaking the truth or not.
Bitcoin will become mainstream
this year and might even become the default reserve currency.
Education: The cheapest smart phones
are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, most humans will own a
smartphone or a device that has access to world class education / information.
Every child can use Khan's academy and other tools for learning art,
engineering, design, languages, science, music, mathematics, etc.
Longevity: Right now, the average
life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to
be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036,
there will be more that one year increase per year. So we all might live for a
long long time, probably way more than 100.
And this
is just what we know of today's science and technology.
Imagine
what FUTURE holds? Challenging?
Scary ?
Exciting?
All at
the same time!
